Is It A Good Time To Invest In Property (Even If Everyone Is Selling)?

Should I Invest in Property?

1985, 1998, 2023, 2030, it doesn’t matter what year it is.

Until the fundamentals of property change, I will remain ALL-IN!

The when doesn’t matter, there’s always going to be someone, somewhere reporting on the dire state of the rental market, telling me that the BTL sector is on its knees, reduced to curdled dog turd by tightening legislation and an increasingly tough economy. Like, right now, whatever year it may be. Google it, you’ll find an article. The internet is great.

“It’s not worth it anymore, the numbers don’t add up”

Oh man, again?

Well in that case, yet again, I ain’t selling shit. Especially now.

Not only am I holding tight, but for the first time in years I feel inspired to lock eyes with the dealer and double-down on my conviction.

HIT ME!

I’m not getting shaken out of the market because people have lost their freaking minds and don’t understand economics. No Goddamn way!

Man, I feel invigorated. I could do 4 Jumping Jacks and eat an unpeeled avocado whole right now. Mind you, I’ve just eaten, so I won’t. I’ll stick to typing.

This is why I personally believe property (and landlording) is the best place for me to store my cheese, whenever… yesterday, today, and tomorrow.

Property is an appreciating asset!

We get so caught up on the monthly cash-flow that we forget property is an appreciating asset and cash is inflationary garbage!

Funny, innit? That the best feature of property as an asset class barely gets any airtime, particularly by emotional landlords seeking refuge on the Property Tribes forums because their portfolio is a ticking time-bomb, or by reputable *cough* property journalists when they’re ripping the market a new one during any remote sign of distress. It really is no wonder the fear spreads like a virus.

Understandable, of course, because the new strain of “get rich quick” landlords won’t learn the value of appreciating assets during their rent-to-rent retreat hosted by their favourite Insta property guru, BECAUSE IT’S NOT RELEVANT WHEN YOU’RE LEARNING HOW TO INVEST IN FUCK-ALL.

To all my rent-to-rent foes out there, class is in session! Admittedly, you were never meant to be the focal point of this blog post, and you’re still not, but as an indirect consequence, I’m going to partly explain why you are not a “property investor”, but rather, lamb to the slaughter.

*adjusts loose tie*

Average UK house price between 2008 – 2023

The chart below shows how property has increased in value over 15 years.

Fabulous, isn’t she?

Average UK house price 2008-2023

Source: propertydata.co.uk

The value of 1 GBP between 2008 – 2023

The chart below shows how £1 has lost value over the same 15 year period.

Ghastly as a buck-toothed hemorrhoid, isn’t he?

Value of GBP, 2008-2023

Source: officialdata.org

The simplest way to explain it is (with abstract and fictional numbers):

  • £1 in 2008 will buy you 3 cans of coke, in 2023 the same £1 will buy you 2 cans of coke.
  • 1 property in 2008 is worth 20,000 cans of coke, in 2023 that same property is worth 30,000 cans of coke.
    • Property holds value better than cash.

      I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I find it odd when people get scared to invest in property and/or make the financial decision to sell off their hard assets [when they don’t need to] during a recession and/or inflationary environment only to hoard cash, which many are right now.

      I understand *why* people do it, because holding cash seems like a safe-play, but the data convincingly indicates that it’s a pitiful method of preserving and generating wealth. Basically, if I’m going to trade an appreciating asset to sit on cash, I may as well also trade my nut sacks for magic beans.

      I also frequently come across the following argument in various pea-brained forms:

      If you buy a rental property that gives you a 4% ROI, you may as well stick it in a high-yielding savings account that offers 4%, because it’s a whole lot less hassle for the same return.

      Oh, come on! Are we really doing this?

      We are.

      In short, no, my good sir, we may as well not do that, because one of those will increase in value over time, the other will freefall out of your arse like last week’s curry.

      The “official UK inflation rate” (by that, I mean the massaged rate the government wheels out) at the time of writing this blog post is 10’ish per cent, so that means my money would have eroded by 6% in buying power over the course of a year while being held hostage in that lousy-ass savings account.

      If you think that’s painful, then the true inflation rate will floor you like a rogue boomerang to the noggin, because it’s a stonking 16%. BOSH!

      From personal experience, I know my bills have certainly gone up closer to 16%, and it’s no way near as piffling as 10%.

      UK inflation rate - April 2023

      Source: truflation.com – a wonderfully scary and eye-opening website that more reliably tracks inflation by taking into account every day products and services we actually purchase. It’s everything they don’t want you to see.

      The whole point of “storing” money in property is to protect and preserve our wealth against eroding fiat currencies (e.g. British Pound), isn’t it?

      I’m not paying through the arse for a pile of bricks, jumping through bullshit regulatory hoops, and effectively being a glorified babysitter and concierge service rolled into one, for a -6% return (adjusted for the massaged inflation rate). That would be mental.

      ROI Vs Inflation

      I always remind myself: Property Vs GBP – that is why we are in the game. We want property to outperform our local currency, which it consistently does, and the reality is, it’s really a one horse race. Why? Consider how much easier it is to Print money Vs Build houses.

      Economy printing money

      To clarify, I invest in property to outperform GBP and inflation in the long-term, not short timeframes. There will be short periods when even property gets savaged by inflation (but it pales in comparison to the grooming GBP gets).

      I’m not scared of investing my own money into property

      When did it become mandatory or even necessary for rental income to cover all costs?

      I always see landlords armed with rage and pitchforks when interest rates increase, because it means they’re forced to dip their grubby little mitts into their pocket to cover short-falls.

      I did that mother-bitch for several years. SEVERAL YEARS! And I would do it again.

      Yes, it hurt. But not for one moment did I feel victimised or like I was throwing money down the drain.

      I felt like I was contributing towards a savings account, only with significantly better returns down the road. I guess the process is easier to stomach when you understand that cash locked into property (even without renting it out) is likely going to do a better job fighting inflation compared to leaving it dormant in a savings account.

      More to the point, if you get wounded by a bullet in the form of a £15k net loss over the span of 5 years while your property increases in value by £25k, are you really bleeding?

      In my previous blog post, I wrote about a commercial property that was passed down to me by my dad. Initially, the lovable bone-head wanted to liquidate the asset and disperse the cash. I shut that idea down real quick, because I know the value will be better preserved right where it is.

      I firmly believe that ownership of the right property along with sensible risk management (neither can be understated) is one of the most resilient investments anyone can make.

      Will property prices keep going up?

      I don’t know, you tell me.

      Do you think this trend is finally broken?

      Average Houses Prices UK Chart

      Source: Nationwide House Price Index

      It’s really simple for me: I either believe property prices will do something it has never done before, or it will continue doing what it’s always done.

      If I believe in the former, I should consider sobbing into your bosoms and selling.

      Otherwise, it would be wise of me to hold and/or buy more.

      As I’ve said before, it’s really difficult for me to imagine that property has hit its ceiling and lose value against our decaying GBP currency, unless there’s a major societal and/or economical shift, such as:

      • Capitalism is killed
      • Inflation is permanently taken out of the monetary system
      • Supply outstrips demand (for this to happen, the government need to break a habit of a lifetime by building enough homes. Hahah!)
      • There’s a fundamental change in human behaviour which leads us to no longer requiring houses

      I’m not convinced we’re close to any of those possibilities, which is why all the panic-driven noise that inevitably gets louder during turmoil gets flushed down my bog, pronto.

      Alas, I’ve noticed that many landlords stop and get distracted by the noise (i.e. regulatory changes), like the people that slow down to catch a glimpse of a car crash on the motorway, like they’re about to witness the Second Coming of Christ.

      I stopped listening to the racket after I heroically (yes, heroically) crawled through the 07/08 property crash on my blooded knees, because in hindsight it’s clear as day how inconsequential all of it really was, which is why I’m currently eager to get my dosh out of the bank and into property (and Bitcoin/crypto), despite the media reporting a stampede towards the exit door.

      On a side note, it’s impossible to really know how many landlords there are entering and exiting the market, so any reported numbers can only be inaccurate and based on anecdotal evidence. There are too many underground landlords that move within the sector; many of whom won’t get BTL mortgages or declare earnings, so they’ll be completely off-grid, like a fart in a windstorm. So even when it’s reported there is a “landlord exodus” (something I’ve heard several times during my reign), I’d wager a hefty bet on the fact there us no real evidence to support the claim.

      I know, I know, I’ve set myself up for some glorious and chaotic pushback. What about S24, proposed changes to the minimum EPC rating, the prospect of S21 being abolished?!?!?

      *sticks fingers in ears* LALALALAL LAAAAL LALA

      Bro, I’ve considered it all, my numbers still stack up. My fear is you haven’t properly thought this through.

      TheTimes.co.uk:

      Can you see what they are doing?

      Evidently, the BTL market behaves like a practising Buddhist or a cat, because it’s either continuously reincarnating or it’s got multiple lives. Incredible.

      UK House Price Crashes

      You might be unsurprised to learn that neither article mentions how much less valuable £1 has become over time, even though it’s the most important variable of the equation. Journalists love to beat the property/rental market with the ugly-stick with one-dimensional ‘in the moment‘ viewpoints, ignoring long-term performance and the weakening currency it’s being benchmarked against. That’s sloppy at best, and actually makes little no sense.

      £450billion was printed out of thin air during the pandemic alone, let that sink in.

      So it blows my puny little mind that people continue to get distracted and unnecessarily force themselves out of the market.

      Being a landlord (a real landlord with skin in the game, that is) is not just about rental income, it’s also about the asset that comes with the job.

      The “job” part was obviously a joke. We all seriously need to get real jobs.

      Of course, BTL is like any other business, in the sense that it will fall victim during tough times if debt becomes unmanageable due to poor risk management. That’s business. None of this is sustainable if you’re up to your eyeballs in syphilis and expensive debt. For example, Section 24 is not killing off landlords with low leverage.

      Finally, I truly appreciate everyone’s circumstances are different, so I’m not telling anyone else what they should be doing with their finances, I’m just saying, there’s never not been a reason to get shaken out of the market.

      Moreover, there’s a reason why the biggest transfer of wealth occurs during recessions. it’s because dumb money panic-sells to smart money.

      Dealer, HIT ME!!

      Stay strong, my friend.

      Landlord out xoxo

79 Join the Conversation...

Showing 29 - 79 comments (out of 79)
The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 13th April, 2023 @ 15:16

@Ebs

I buy all my crypto from Coinbase and Crypto.com App.

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Ebs 13th April, 2023 @ 15:18

Thanks
And great blog btw
Keep up the good work

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 13th April, 2023 @ 15:20

@Ebs

No probs at all, and thank you :)

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Ian 13th April, 2023 @ 15:24

May I suggest swissborg it's a much better app , very simple easy to use with much cheaper fees

Cheers

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 13th April, 2023 @ 15:46

@Ian

Ah, I actually have a Swissborg account, but didn't use it because they don't have as many cryptos as the larger exchanges. I might actually start using it though, just to buy Bitcoin & Eth, especially if the fees are cheaper.

Thanks for the recommendation/reminder, Ian :)

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Borrieboy 13th April, 2023 @ 15:57

@ The Landlord

Cash deposits aren't worth a hoot in reality.
An avenue I've taken as a sideline is P2P property backed investment.
Thus far the experience has been good, generating an av. ROI of c. 7.5%. Granted, nothing spectacular but no effort required on my part.
When being late to the party re crypto, it reminds one of something some American mogul once said: "if you start getting tips from the bell-hop about an investment, that's the time to sell".
Not suggesting anyone on this site is of the same standing as a bell-hop, nor indeed diminishing the important role of bell-hop in the hospitality sector.
I guess the old adage applies... your money is at risk and you may lose the lot.
Maybe a few grand down the pan on crypto won't hurt too much and there again, I could become a millionaire (Rodney)...

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Stealth Bomber 13th April, 2023 @ 16:18

@NRW Holy smokes, that's exactly the sort of thing I mean!!!! You can see this steaming pile of cow dung from a mile away, and more of it to follow. I sold a property recently, rated C, only 1 point off a B. And honestly I dont know much else that could be done to it. 50 feet of loft insulation, super mega glazing throughout, cavity wall insulated, condensing boiler, the list is endless. Short of it being air tight, sealing up the letter box and entering through a vacuum tube, its utter madness.
Its also worth noting the appalling way some of these "insulation systems" are installed, you might as well give your money to me 😁. Only kidding , I wish you well in insulating Britain.

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 13th April, 2023 @ 16:43

@Borrieboy

I've been pitched the P2P property schemes before, but decided it's not really for me. But all good that it's working for you.

Haha, yeah, I've heard something similar about crypto, "when your barber is talking about crypto, you know it's time to sell."

Thing with crypto is that it goes through 4 year cycles (at least, it has so far), and at the moment it's in a bear market (prices tanked up to 90%), so very few barbers are talking about it right now, as most of them panic sold and got burnt.

Most of the "retail" investors (e.g. barbers) got in at the top during the peak (when everyone was talking about Doge Coin), and then got shaken out when prices started declining. Usual story. It's the same thing that happens in every investment cycle.

That is exactly why I've been investing quite aggressively recently, in preparation for the next bull run (which, if the cycle remains true to form, will happen in 2024/25).

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Graham Ireland 13th April, 2023 @ 17:04

All your comments are right but I think you have missed the one underlying fact. Land/property is mainly fixed and the underlying fact that the population is growing is what drives the increasing value of that land/property. Basically each individual can only have a smaller share of the resource compared to the last generation therefore the value has to be higher per square meter. My thought is that as other resources become a limiting factor to that population growth then the value growth of the land asset will also tail off. Mind you don't hold your breath and I know I will not be affected by that. Think there are currently 7 billion of us but in 100 years time every man, woman and child now alive will be dead. They will be replaced at current rates by about 7B X 1.2. Work out all your growths on that fact and see where you get to. certainly over my lifetime my mothers house purchased for £3K sold 64 years later for £500K, that is 8% compound growth every year regardless of all other economic factors. My inheritance from her went straight back into BTL's. Still wish I could have got one more but needed some reserve liquidity to be able to retire securely.

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 13th April, 2023 @ 17:20

@Graham Ireland

I agree, supply/demand is the driving factor, as it is with any commodity. I kind of touched on it, when I mentioned the supply of houses increasing. But that's a challenge the government has never been able to tackle, so I won't be holding my breath. Of course, I hope every landlord/investor knows that they are in possession of a valuable product that is not only limited in supply, but is also a necessity.

Incidentally, I believe the birth rate in developed countries is actually declining quite quickly. Less people are having children. Along with A.I, the birth rate decline is one of the things Elon Musk always shows concern over. What's happening at the moment is that people are living longer (and that's what's causing a temporary spike), but eventually we'll hit a point where if the birth rate continues to drop, the global population is going to quickly shrink.

"my mothers house purchased for £3K sold 64 years later for £500K, that is 8% compound growth every year regardless of all other economic factors" -- beautiful. And that's why we do what we do :)

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Sanjay 13th April, 2023 @ 18:12

Great post as always. Would you consider podcasts too for conveying your thoughts?

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FEDup 13th April, 2023 @ 18:14

Hang in there... but what about the demographics. Boomers are invested for grandchildren. That won't be the case for millennials necessarily. EPC are part of ESG agenda. Property is an easy place for bankrupt governments to tax. I have 0% leverage but still think its my time to sell. Smart cities are coming. Planning permission will become harder and possible PPR replaced by £150k 0% rated allowance. Tories will use corbyn model. The Bankers hold the ultimate vote with their loan book. If britcoin comes in then it's game over. Still it's been a hellva ride.

P.S. bought BTC etf @6k sold @60k now won't touch statoshi NFT on ethical grounds. 1st world problems lol.

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 14th April, 2023 @ 08:51

@Sanjay,

Hey man, many thanks.

As in, start a podcast and talk about landlording and property? Sounds like a lot of work! I'll think about it, ha :)

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 14th April, 2023 @ 08:56

@FEDup,

I pay little attention to demographics, I just base my thoughts on supply/demand. I don't see supply outstripping demand anytime soon. All about demand, baby!

Sell into what? That's the problem.

Man, that's one hell of a BTC trade, congrats. I think my best trade was $LUNA (before it crashed), averaged in about $3-5, sold at $80. BOOM!

At the moment, my average buy in price for BTC is $18k.

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Suri 14th April, 2023 @ 10:37

Hi Landlord,
I agree with your comments. I believe in property and have had years where I had to subsidise the rents. But overall has been a winner. I too think long term. When we pay into our pensions we don't expect any return until pension age so why not think of property in this way. I like royalty don't sell!
I have 3 properties between myself and husband plus part time jobs which takes me to 50k income and husband to 25k. I would like to buy another one but not sure how to structure it. Should I buy in son's and husband's name (son 99% and husband 1% ownership) privately owned and then flip the rental son 1% and husband 99%. or should I set up a family limited company. Any advice would be appreciated I realise you are not a financial advisor but I like your technique. Many thanks

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Marro 14th April, 2023 @ 15:52

The massive bonus of property is the “miracle of gearing”. Of course, if you’re over-geared interest rate rises can bite you in the bum in pure cash flow terms (which is the problem right now with heavily geared landlords and severe upward lurching in the base rate) but in the main, long-term landlords are only funding a diminishing proportion of the growth in property value - all of the compound growth in the total asset is yours while the principal remains fixed. When the price you’re paying to fund that principal is even covered totally by the ROI % the whole asset generates, your acquisition of the total (geared) profit is free. Short term hiccups aside, it’s a no-brainer: it feels painful if interest rates mean the price of the money machine is steep for a while, but that doesn’t undermine the long-term wealth generation of a geared investment, of which b-t-l property is the prime example.

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Insane Landlord 15th April, 2023 @ 09:43

I have never laughed as much as I have just laughed in ages, as when I read your comment on emotional landlords seeking free pyscho therapy in Property Tribes.

The Landlord, your posts are such a breath of fresh air, and make me laugh even when it feels like its the end of the world and I'm thinking the 'but you don't know what I'm going through!' moments.

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Katies 15th April, 2023 @ 15:03

Hi Landlord

I have been trying to get into BTL with my husband for some years but always delayed it.

Our mortgage is due to be renewed in July, we have extended the property so it is now worth about £800k, our current mortgage is £550k and we have a around £40 of debt from extension which is all on credit cards at zero percent.

To avoid the onerous changes brought in by George Osborne (Section 24)

We want to create a company for each property we buy (maybe with shares owned by a group holding company), so that we can claim mortgage interest relief as an expense, we plan to make a loss for the first 5 years by renting at a lower amount or repaying a loan we make to the company as a deposit, we are using my husband's annual bonus which is £90 less 45% income tax so £50,000, plus we will be lending the 40k from the credit cards to the company which will effectively be repaid by the company and we will top up by liquidating shares etc or starting with a cheaper property.

We are not planning to pay share dividends (except for the £1000 allowance) for the first five years or so and we plan to buy more properties each year, but after our own property (that we will live in for the next 2 to 4 years and pay rent to the company for) we plan to buy BTL's in the North of England as that seems to be where there is the best ROI and rent security.

The questions:

Are there any downsides to the above?

What is the best BTL interest rate we can expect and where to get it from?

What will the deposit required be (are they still the 20% min to 40% quoted on your BTL FAQ)?

Should we forget starting with our own property and start this with a property up North?

Are there any other considerations?

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Robster 17th April, 2023 @ 06:20

I feel like your argument is somewhat flawed. Property prices rise, GBP falls. But your property prices are measured in GBP. A nicer comparison to analyse would be shares held in a world tracker, which is a majority 60% in the US and thus linked to US dollar vs property bought in GBP over a long period. I believe the shares portfolio would win, especially if you consider tax advantages of ISAs or a pension to invest.

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 17th April, 2023 @ 09:06

Hi @Suru,

Sounds like you're in a good/stable position, congrats.

Unfortunately, I think it would be irresponsible of me to offer any advice/suggestions on how to structure your investment plan (sorry!), because I don't know enough about your personal circumstances (e.g. debt, liabilities, goals etc.), plus, I'm not a tax specialist (sounds like you want to optimise your tax liability).

My structure has always been based on putting down big deposits on good properties, that's it. I don't overthink it, to be honest. Then my accountant handles the finances/accounts.

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 17th April, 2023 @ 09:13

Hi @Marro,

Yup, exactly. Completely agree.

It's pretty much the same every cycle, those that overleverage (i.e. "heavily geared", as you say) get flushed out when the economy takes a turn for the worst. It's unfortunate, but at the same time, healthy. A financial system can only be propped up by so much leverage for so long before it goes pop! Those that make sensible/manageable financial decisions are usually able to endure the hiccups along the way, and eventually they don't even register because they become inconsequential to the bottom line.

That's why I always encourage prospective landlords to only get into BTL for long-term, otherwise you're setting yourself up for disaster.

I'm with you all the way!

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 17th April, 2023 @ 09:17

@Insane Landlord

Haha, thanks, appreciate it.

Nothing against Property Tribes, or the co-founders (I like them and engage with them now and then), but man, it can be depressing on there! I often read some of the threads and I get concerned that many of the contributors are about to jump off a balcony!

People, it's going to be okay (probably)!

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The Landlord Avatar
The Landlord 17th April, 2023 @ 09:28

Hi @Katies,

In my opinion, never a bad time to invest when markets are cooling off :)

Unfortunately, as I said in a previous comment, it would be irresponsible of me to offer any advice/suggestions on how to structure your investment plan (sorry!), least of all because I'm not a tax specialist (sounds like you want to optimise your tax liability).

But instinctively, I must say that starting a limited company for each property doesn't sound like the best idea (but I could be wrong). There's usually a cross roads after buying multiple properties when it makes sense to go Limited. There are other costs that come associated with being limited, so often not worth it for small time landlords (even with S24, because that will also depend on your debt/interest rate).

But again, it's something you'd need to talk an accountant about - I'm not the best person to ask.

I pay my accountant on a retainer so he manages all my finances for me.

In terms of interest rates/where to a mortgage from, I always recommend Habito.

Deposit will depend on lender/product, but I personally never put down less than 35%-40% these days.

You'll definitely get cheaper properties up north. So what I would say is, get a good property with least amount of debt. If that means buying up north, then so be it. But note that there is pros and cons to buying property far away.

Sorry I can't be of more help.

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The Landlord 17th April, 2023 @ 09:43

Hi @Robster

Hmm, I think you may have misunderstood my point. I'm actually a little confused by your point, to be honest.

Not sure how valuable/practical it is to benchmark against other currencies, because in reality, people trade in their local currency. Do normal landlords consider currency conversion rates before buying property in their local currency?

If GBP falls, but my property is worth MORE GBP, that's hedging against inflation, and that will in turn buy me more USD. The idea is for property value to keep up with local inflation rates (or better yet, outperform it), because our inflation rate is linked to the USD anyways.

I'm not saying there aren't better performing asset classes out there than property (i.e. I believe Bitcoin will outperform property in the next few years by a considerable margin like it has done in the previous years), but what I am saying that property is an appreciating asset, stable, reliable, and it will likely perform better than cashing out and leaving the money in a savings account. Many landlords are "panic selling" to hold cash - they're not cashing out to trade.

I think what you're talking about is getting the best possible return (which I'm not).

Apologies if I have misunderstood!

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Katies 17th April, 2023 @ 13:43

@Landlord

Thanks for your reply. I think you are right about least amount of borrowing which means going up North for best LTV.

Forming a company costs £20, the accounting will be the same essentially but easier to see ROI per project.

Also the benefit of having one company per property is that if we want to sell then stamp duty on shares is 0.5%, so we can factor some of the savings into the sale price. Also when there are thresholds they are per entity.

Personally I find it far easier to manage all costs and expenses per project and if for whatever reason a property turns out to be a nightmare, for whatever reason, we can sell it by selling the company shares, then nominate new directors etc. All of this can be done online these days.

Regarding currency, I think it only matters if you need to move money at short notice or are a foreign investor. The central banks face a dilemma, they wanted to get some payback so interest rates were pushed up on the pretext of inflation and productivity. However, the way it has been done has exposed issues in bonds, they seem to have figured this out now and will slowly move the base rate back down. If they don't do this then I think all Governments are screwed and it will be a wild west for who is exposed and what blue horseshoe wants to put into play.

As for Crypto, I think it is finished, too many people lost their money, it has even brought down some banks in US who were too exposed. A lot of the money that was in Bitcoin moved to energy when they got a hint of the Russian invasion and it will stay there until the war is over. There are two types of people who are still in Bitcoin, those that are in denial and those that can't move their money. I am not saying Bitcoin won't be back, but it would have to become regulated and that is unlikely when people rely on past performance as a measure for future investments.

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Ian 17th April, 2023 @ 14:56

Katie's,

Have you seen the ROI on bitcoin THIS YEAR ALONE??

Regards

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Katies 17th April, 2023 @ 15:28

@Ian

It is hardly a return on investment, it is a speculative item with zero tangible value.

Of course there are people who own it and want to encourage others to buy it so they can get their money back or reduce their loss.

You can choose a time on anything to make it look good, for example the graph on this very page looks at property from 2008, it would be a tad less positive if is started in 1988 as it would include crashes.

I remember the price of Bitcoin was $61k in March 2021, then dropped to $31k by mid July, then to $64k in November 2021 and back down to $35k by end of Jan 2022, then down to $16k by Nov 22 and yes it recovered to $20k in March 2023 currently it is $29k but today alone it has dropped 2.92%. All of this for no other reason than speculation. If you ever talk to a gambler who pays Poker or bets on horses they will spin all kinds of BS, but they are gamblers. If it is so good then sell it and buy back in when it drops again, as long as there are mugs there will be people to fool them. If you are a buyer of bitcoin it is in your interest to talk it up, but it has zero fundamental value.

Data is from Google over 5 years, search for : bitcoin price in dollars

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Ian 17th April, 2023 @ 15:29

Katie's

I suggest you stick to your guns and never buy bitcoin.

All the best

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Katies 17th April, 2023 @ 15:37

@Ian

Thanks Ian, I will definitely be following that suggestion and never buy Bitcoin or any other Crypto fake.

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The Landlord 17th April, 2023 @ 17:10

Hi @Katies

the graph on this very page looks at property from 2008

I show a graph from 1952, which is the earliest data available from Nationwide's house price index. I didn't choose a timeframe. How far does it need to go back?

The 2008 - 2023 graph is just a snapshot of how property has faired against GBP during the same period. The graph trend will be the same regardless of how far back you go, because GBP is inflationary.

Surprised you think crypto/Bitcoin is over, and I'm wondering what you're basing that on. Bitcoin is getting more global adoption than ever before, including by the biggest companies, banks and hedge funds in the world. The Bitcoin network has never been so secure.

Bitcoin/crypto has gone through 3 complete cycles since its inception (4 years' per cycle) and we're currently rolling into the 4th, and so far it's behaved exactly like previous cycles (because of the Bitcoin halving).

Bitcoins value has held up better than a lot of major tech stocks during this bear market, including Tesla.

I'd argue that money didn't leave the market go to into energy, but rather, the money left the market because that's what has always happened during this part of the cycle. Have you looked at the cycle chart?

I remember the price of Bitcoin was $61k in March 2021, then dropped to $31k by mid July, then to $64k in November 2021 and back down to $35k by end of Jan 2022, then down to $16k by Nov 22 and yes it recovered to $20k in March 2023 currently it is $29k but today alone it has dropped 2.92%.

Wait, didn't you just choose a timeframe to make Bitcoin look bad? :)

Now let's analyse Bitcoin's price action from the day it was created to today, and how it's performed against ALL other investments/assets? :)

I am not saying Bitcoin won't be back, but it would have to become regulated

The whole point of Bitcoin is that it's decentralised, it's P2P, that's the beauty of it. How do you regulate something that isn't state owned? You can't. Bitcoin is governed by code, not people.

There are two types of people who are still in Bitcoin, those that are in denial and those that can't move their money.

That's really not true. A lot of people get into and stay in crypto because it is decentralised, and it opposes the scam that is fiat currency, which is constantly controlled/manipulated by governments.

A lot of currencies around the world are worthless and completely debased from overprinting. Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador, and I'm sure many countries will follow.

When will it stop being speculative?

I'm sure this will be a case of agreeing to a disagree, which is cool.

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NWLandlord 20th April, 2023 @ 11:21

I've got 2 big investments, a pension pot and property. The pension I pay someone to manage, at covid onset it dropped like a stone, then recovered slowly. It makees money every year, but I'd say the growth is about £25k per year in total.

A smaller cash investment into property - mind its all my money after tax, the pension was mainly employer contribution - produces a better return.

I have 4 renters owned outright, another on the way - I agree time to buy.

Those suggesting other forms of investment consider this - a good example but not my top return.

Purchased 10 years ago, £50k. Spent £8k renovating, call it £2k in other expenses in 10 years for round numbers. Total investment £60k.

Rent received started at £450 pcm, now at £610 pcm. Total rent over 10 years stands at about £60k - I could check but that's close enough.

House worth £110k if sold. People who think it's a poor investment always look at either the rent return or the capital growth value. The fact is it's both.

Key learnings for me so far in my property investment.

Buy carefully. I've made a lot more by buying the right house than any other investment.
Choose your tenants with great care, don't allow 15 minutes to meet them, its approx a £20k business investment each time.
look after your property and your tenants.

Love the blogs but to me Crypto is only for cash you can afford to lose. The 90% drop talked about has been devestating to some, yet a 20% property crash gets shouted about far more.

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Paul 20th April, 2023 @ 14:07

Hi @Katies

Fix the money fix the world

"There are two types of people who are still in Bitcoin, those that are in denial and those that can't move their money."

Over 60% of bitcoin has been held for over 5 years and this number continues to grow. You will have to tear my bitcoin out of my dead twitching fingers because I'll never sell it to you.......why would I sell the scarcest asset known to man? Like prime real-estate, I'll just borrow against it and pass it on to future generations.....I guess I'm in the "denial" group. HFSP

Paul

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Ian 20th April, 2023 @ 17:44

Paul

IS THAT YOU MICHAEL SAYLOR??? Lol

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Stevie C 23rd April, 2023 @ 16:33

Hey Landlord, great read, I agree with you, but something tells me if inflation stays high, and a recession looms, then house values could stagnate for a few years (see Japan!).
I'm cracking on a bit now... so I'm pondering selling one of my properties, having a few nice hols, and loading up on some more crypto... (I'm an OG from 2017) Can you divulge what your crypto portfolio consists of at the moment? (Obvs not financial advice!) Thanks again!

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The Landlord 24th April, 2023 @ 06:22

Hey @Stevie C,

Many thanks!

Yup, I agree, there's a good chance house values could stagnate in the short-term term, but I'm good with that.

Hope we don't get as bad as Japan. Have you also seen what's going on in Argentina lately? 80% inflation! Insane.

Nothing wrong at all with cashing out some of your chips to enjoy the fruits of your labour.

In regards to crypto, OG from 2017, amazing! I've been surprised by how many of my subscribers are also into crypto.

Sure, these are my main holdings (in no particularly order): $BTC, $DOT, $ADA, $AVAX, $XRP, $FIL, $MATIC, $ATOM, $VET. I also have a few other smaller market cap alts, which are super speculative, but they don't account for much of my portfolio. What about you?

I think the Gaming sector is going to be huge in the coming years, so I do plan on picking up some gaming tokens as well (e.g. $GALA, $PYR), but I need to do more research.

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Stevie C 24th April, 2023 @ 10:14

Thanks for the reply, yes Turkey and Argentina in big trouble, hope we don't go that way!

I live in Hove so the demand for rentals right now is bonkers, especially with summer approaching, so I may be stupid selling now... Your post might have swayed me to not sell..!

I have similar crypto bags to you, but sold my XRP and ADA for QNT and more ETH. Will probably add some risky alts if we sell the flat. I also bought some Helium and MXC PoC miners back in 2021, as they have actual real-world use cases going for them, and seemed to make good sense, but have since crashed horribly, and the projects are floundering somewhat. I need a bull run soon as I have a lot of these tokens slowly dying! Oh well...Onwards and upwards...

You should start a separate Crypto blog as you seem to have a great way of educating yourself and others on the topic... :)

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The Landlord 24th April, 2023 @ 12:43

@Stevie C,

Yup, I've heard the short-let holiday market in the UK is booming due to inflation + Brexit, and that most likely will continue for the foreseeable future.

Haha, I actually have a couple of Bobcat Helium miners as well. They cost pennies to run so I've just continued to let them be. I'm also hoping the price action will improve for HNT during the next bull run. Even if it manages to recapture half the value of its all time high, that would be a good result for me.

I think I'd actually enjoy blogging about my personal crypto journey/thoughts/investments (I wouldn't necessarily try to educate). If the mood randomly strikes I might get something going :)

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Andrewa 10th May, 2023 @ 18:57

Hi Landlord,
Speaking about bitcoin etc the problem is governments. Once upon a time if someone in the UK wanted a (bitcoin) pistol, rifle or machine gun they just went to a (bitcoin exchange or miner) gun shop and bought one. Then the government changed the law. Now the only people in the UK with pistols or machine guns are criminals. The law for "bitcoin" could be changed tomorrow making it a crime not to turn over your pistols or machine guns (bitcoin) to your nearest police station. Roosevelt did it with gold in the US in the Thirty's.

Let's be careful out there!

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The Landlord 12th May, 2023 @ 11:03

@Andrewa

Well, ironically, I think you just highlighted the beauty of Bitcoin by demonstrating how other assets can be confiscated and controlled by governments.

Bitcoin cannot be confiscated from someone's position, unlike other assets e.g. guns, bank accounts, cash, gold bullions, paintings, artwork, cars etc. The point is, they're all physically obtainable and/or the Government have the powers to access them.

Governments can only regulate what they can reach. How can anyone govern a commodity that is borderless, has no home and works P2P? It's like trying to control air.

Countries like India and China tried to ban crypto. They failed.

Bitcoin can go with you wherever you go. For example, if you're fleeing a war-torn country (or even governance), no one can confiscate your Bitcoin [if it's in stored in self-custody].

All it takes is ONE computer anywhere in the world to power the network.

When people start to wrap their heads around what "decentralisation" really means, it makes it easier to appreciate Bitcoin.

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Andrewa 13th May, 2023 @ 11:57

Not trying to piss on your batteries but:

How things work with government- hint, the enforcers are called the executive branch for a reason. You can bury your guns and gold where the government cannot find them but if there is a any record at all whatsoever of you having them then they apply high voltage to your testicles or a copper dildo and you tell them where they are buried.

Now as to bitcoin, the way the internet works (and that is the only way you can spend your bitcoin or other digital money) is essentially the same way Queen Victoria's postal service worked, it's why they are called data packets, each one with a digital postmark, stamp and labels stating who sent it and to whom it was sent.

If you are using a vlan then what happens is like a spy in Britain wanting to send a coded message to Germany actually sending it to an addressee in a neutral country who then places it in a new packet which is then sent to Germany. The original data packet is now merely encapsulated in another data packet.

As far as encryption goes the only code that cannot be broken is a one time pad which requires a physical hand over of the pad (The jury is still out over whether this code can be decrypted by a quantum computer).
This code breaking means that anything you transmit over the internet can be decrypted and tracked to its source even if you are using a cellphone whilst driving around.

All the government needs to do is pass a law saying the penalty for transacting in any manner with bitcoin for example will be punished by for example hanging, drawing and quartering anyone caught doing so and then getting gchq to point to someone who has done so.

Be honest, after the first bitcoin criminal has been executed in this manner will you transact in bitcoin?

On the other hand if the government doesn't know you have had guns or gold and nobody else does then you can keep them hidden but it is a risk when you use them. HMRC Catch most evaders because someone turns them in like an agrieved wife or husband.

Still, glad you made a profit on your ecoin gambles but it's a lot riskier than property ( slow and steady because the cost of the bricks, sticks and labour necessary to create the residential space is guaranteed to match the rate of inflation whilst rental income all things being equal and barring government intervention will do rhe same)

🤔

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GriffMG 14th May, 2023 @ 10:26

@NRW...

The EPC thing is only somewhat of a problem... get trained and do your own, or use
a different assessor...

@Landlord

Great article again, thank you

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Andrewa 14th May, 2023 @ 10:33

Or like a landlords trade union as you cannot assess your own property get qualified and then I'll do yours if you do mine?

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Roberto 16th June, 2023 @ 18:26

Great article.

Few points that I believe would complement your line of thinking:

* leverage: there aren't many asset classes out there offering long term leverage for your money with very low risk of margin calls when the market goes bad. It is bad to be in over leverage situation, but maintaining a 50-60% LTVs across the portfolio actually can help you with more diversification in your portfolio and capital appreciation over a much bigger figure.

* population growth: world is predicted to get much more crowded over the next decades. Regardless of Brexit politics, immigration helps economic growth therefore it is likely to always be net positive.

* war: this goes in your doomsday scenarios for price falling. Perhaps more likely than capitalism ending... This can affect you depending on where you invest, or in very low remote possibility, can well affect any country (including UK).

* environmental disaster or regional adversity: this a risk for the people who like to have their portfolio all in one neighbourhood (or sometimes street). Imagine if there is something turning the region into waste land. Imagine the scenarios such as nuclear disaster, city dump or prison built next door to your portfolio, etc.

* having more house building wouldn't be a huge risk for single tenancy, as long as tenant population remains higher than house stock. I bought one of my houses in 2015 in a small town in the middle of nowhere in East England. Over the last 2 years the town has been inundated with new houses and so far, they have only propped up the local house prices and rents by approx 30%. Builders want to make their profit, so any house has to sell by cost of building + their margin. So prices keep going up as cost of building never falls due to inflation... Landlords buying those houses need a higher rent to get their return in a higher price...

* falling cost of building can be a risk: as per above, inflation on cost of building will keep propping up house prices when location is not great, BUT if someone comes up with some cool technology (cooler than sliced bread) in which you can build a really nice house for a very low cost... then any property on more than 1 mile distance from a London tube station may be in trouble.

* HMOs existence are the naked eye view of low supply/high demand scenario that justifies housing as good investment: Lets be honest, most people would prefer to live in their own property instead of renting a room. To me, the simple fact that HMOs exist and are profitable, it is a clear picture of the huge demand and low supply in the housing sector. Look at other markets such as shares, crypto, commodities, metals, etc the prices are also determined by supply/demand of buyers/sellers, but it is always difficult to see how supply/demand will fluctuate. With housing I just need to look at the crazy amount of people willing to pay a lot of money to live in a single room.

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Dace Dastardly 25th June, 2023 @ 22:15

"at the time of writing this blog post is 10’ish per cent, so that means my money would have eroded by 6% in buying power over the course of a year while being held hostage in that lousy-ass savings account."

Either I fail at maths or it's not 6%?

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Dace Dastardly 25th June, 2023 @ 23:01

@Landlord but what will central bank digital currencies do to bitcoin?

Thanks for the article, I burnt the whole weekend trying to decide whether to rent for my first time or sell what I inherited after going through HELL in my city to renovate it. Things will be harsh for a while, but you took me from 80% to 100% certainty regarding rental choice. :)

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The Landlord 27th June, 2023 @ 09:23

@Dace

Savings account interest rate was 4'ish %, inflation was 10'ish %, which is how you get 6% erosion :)

Basically, putting money in a savings account does not beat inflation historically.

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The Landlord 27th June, 2023 @ 09:32

@Dace

Hmmm, in my opinion, it will only strength Bitcoin, which I also believe is the general belief among Bitcoiners and crypto enthusiasts.

The biggest criticism for CBDCs is that it's going to essentially be a government surveillance scheme. The gov will be able to track everything we spend, which is a pretty dangerous precedence to set. Moreover, it's just going to be a lot easier for them to print more money out of thin air.

I don't think it really changes the purpose or ethos of Bitcoin, it only strengthens its case. Bitcoin wasn't created to digitalise currency, it was created to provide a decentralised currency that can't be interfered with by centralised entities, that can control the supply and debase it's value whenever it wants.

Gosh, please don't pin your decision on my adolescent ramblings, ha! But either way, I'm sure you made a wise decision, which will pay off :)

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Dace Dastardly 28th June, 2023 @ 10:53

@Landlord Ok, I thought with CBDC's release they would also simultaneously do everything they could to destroy bitcoin; but have just read that that's very hard to do.

Thanks! I also improved my basic schema by reading several articles and a podcast explaining the historic housing shortage and why it likely won't improve soon. It was fascinating stuff and I actually heard a politician or two speaking honestly which was extremely disturbing.

I looked into 3d house printing tech, which obviously if was becoming increasingly reliable would be a problem.. and hey it aint!

Also I noticed that regardless of how hard conservatives have been on us lately, the higher the rank of the politician, the more likely they are to be a landlord.

I also happen to live in one of the new freeports, no idea if that will really help with capital appreciation though, I'm still very ignorant of business and economics, but learning rapidly to make sure I always understand the bigger picture.

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Dace Dastardly 28th June, 2023 @ 12:22

Had the crazy idea to try and get some housing experience (spy on the future competition) by becoming an intermittent viewber too lol.

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Ian 12th March, 2024 @ 09:00

HEY KATIES

HOWS THAT NOT BUYING FAKE CRYPTO SCAMMY STUFF GOING FOR YOU??

MEANWHILE WE ARE WITNESSING THE BIGGEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH IN HISTORY.

THE LIFE CHANGING GAINS HAVE BEEN SECURED, PLENTY OF ROOM LEFT IN THE ALTCOIN MARKET AS WELL. YUMMY

ALL THE BEST SCRATCHING THE RENTAL GAME

IAN

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The Landlord 12th March, 2024 @ 11:01

Way to be humble, Ian :)

But yes, I'm certainly enjoying the crypto gains at the moment, and Katies' opinion that crypto is "finished" was certainly wrong.

Not only did the ETFs in America get approved (and proving to be the most successful ETF launch in history), helping Bitcoin reach a new all time high, but it also seems like the UK is getting involved now.

Bitcoin seems unstoppable at this point as more people are waking up to the systematic debasement of fiat currency (i.e. inflation).

I'm itching to write an update on my Bitcoin/Crypto investment - but I'm going to wait :)

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